The existence of the real estate similar problems with Rio Tinto
recently occurred in China shocked the world steel industry, leading to the Australian Prime Minister said Australia will negotiate the highest level of the Rio Tinto case: Rio Tinto The major foreign companies 500 , one of the world's three major iron ore suppliers, their employees in China on suspicion of theft of state secrets in China by the Chinese judicial authorities in criminal detention. some domestic institutions, enterprises and individuals involved in the case of Rio Tinto, in order to participate in commercial interests ore speculation.
Rio murder case, in let us reflect on some domestic institutions, enterprises and individuals as the same time, allow some foreign investment in the public image and business reputation greatly reduced, and the authority of their words and actions are questioned. < br> and Rio Tinto said that in this case, not only because they involve the steel industry, especially steel prices and the real estate market and housing prices in turn, related to market expectations, but also because in real estate does not preclude the existence of similar problems in the case of Rio Tinto possible. in the real estate field, some foreign words and deeds, to some extent, there may be more or less the case with Rio Tinto or similar phenomena. just some foreign institutions or individual experts, may not be as identity the purpose of commercial interests, there can not be ruled out, some foreign media to lie, mislead the market possible. inconsistent with the practice of some foreign words and deeds, though not conclusive that would involve the interests of the real estate industry as well as national interests, but had to admit that if the foreign real is in the use of some of its advantages, the real estate operation in some way by public opinion to mislead the market, then, its impact on the real estate industry can not be overlooked.
on the topic of foreign investment in China real estate market, News similar to the phenomenon of the Rio case or related problems? this problem who might be difficult to blindly deny. from some foreign words and deeds of view, although its manifestations and Rio Tinto have different but essentially similar nature of hh
foreign investment has been China Real Estate
sing from the Bureau of Statistics data, from January to May this year, the amount of real estate sales over the same period of 2007, setting a record high.
pointed out: As the performance of impressive performance of property stocks as a good .3 Since January, Hong Kong stocks rose 30% all the way to the performance of dramatic fire, as the mainstay of the broader market, real estate stocks is a good performance. Almost all of listed in Hong Kong owned real estate company's shares have risen to two to three times the original price. At this time, foreign investment banks began to see more Chinese property stocks wantonly. In fact, although China has not really out of the adjustment of the real estate cycle, but some have been in the public opinion on foreign sing the Chinese real estate, and some even do not rule out the possibility of lying.
until recently, more and more responsible scholars, market experts, started to pay attention, concerns the real estate bubble, to remind the Government, pay attention to the real estate market bubble. In this situation, some foreign investment banks, while still sing in the high-profile public opinion, claiming that the situation is excellent, on the other hand, it has been quietly realization of the domestic real estate assets. in which a representative, or ought to take advantage of economic crisis, Lehman Brothers Asia-Pacific assets will earn that Nomura Securities and Morgan Stanley, UBS, JP Morgan Chase.
before the July 6, Nomura Securities and Morgan Stanley, UBS, Morgan Chase and other foreign investment banks are active advocates of the real estate market in China, public opinion, those who sing. on June 5, Nomura Securities also released a report, the mainland property market will continue strong transaction is expected to rise to 740 million by 2010 square meters of record high prices this year and next, 10% and 15% increase, and is expected to rise in most of space within the housing stock 30% m50% .6 19, Credit Suisse released a report that recommended buying the property to benefit volume within the housing stock .6 24, JP Morgan Chase said that based on a relatively stable economic growth, coupled with the mainland housing prices are expected to rise further next 6-12 months, the Mainland is expected to improve gross profit developers, and increase the net asset value ( NAV), medium-term outlook remains positive.
strange that foreign public opinion, while they sing in the short
In fact, since after 27 September 2007, the real estate market suddenly change, which many foreign and domestic investors, large investments on hand quilt, suffer from tight gas market is not difficult to drive up prices, not interest objectives in a timely manner in accordance with shipments expected to make investments in some sort of relief quilt, or as to enlarge their investment interests. And these investors are worried about , the Chinese government at all levels begin to fall into the policy to rescue the market, giving them a rare opportunity to manipulate the market sort of relief.
their own interests and foreign policy were caught in time to rescue the market as a last resort. In the opinion , the foreign bodies were released in the name or address or the name of an expert opinion through the news media, the use of real estate sales data, do all to hard to sing. Foreign their real purpose, or is to create through the media atmosphere of the real estate boom to push up real estate is expected to change market sentiment, which can find a buyer and smooth then set some sort of relief. In fact, some foreign investors who sing in public at the same time, in trying to actually short Paohuo , dry contrary to the views which his report or something, so that some people feel strange. from some foreign words and deeds of view, although its manifestations and Rio Tinto have different but essentially similar Speaking of hh
That some people, or incite that , in the July 6 sing suddenly changing their statements, the first Chinese real estate market bubble sent a clear signal before, after, as an active advocate of Chinese real estate market, Lehman Brothers quietly original real estate assets in the country all the selling. but in fact, in addition to Nomura, there are more foreign investment banks were selling is cash intensive. such as UBS, June 19 holdings 7,312,100 Unit R & F Properties, involving 128 million dollar funding. In fact, UBS, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan this year on April 6 to May 7 has been several times between the date of reduction of R & F Properties. which, Morgan Stanley Lee on April 16 holdings sold by R & F 2570.89 million shares, R & F in May to sell the stock more than 1,400 shares.
lie with foreign sounding data based on
people are bound to ask is, For foreign investors who, as is, since the public opinion of the Chinese real estate market hard to sing, and experts in the agencies reported remarks on the Chinese real estate market situation and optimism about the future, as well as overweight positions reasonably should continue to until house prices continue to rise, closing more fire to get more benefits after the fishes, but why should sell it quietly in the background? to explain the reasons, perhaps foreign investors can continue to publish the report at length say N kinds of reasons, including financial crisis caused by financial constraints and so forth. But in fact, the real reason there is only one, that is, they are lying. The basis for foreign investment are lying, it is the Bureau of Statistics released the real estate sales data, and may not be stealing trade confidential.
thought and the government rescue of a variety of other reasons, in order to create a warm mood of some local governments to adopt the approach of processing data, released by injection of real estate sales data to change market expectations of consumer mentality, stimulate the real estate purchase. But, used to protect their own interests, habits, thinking businessmen, the government used deception, and perhaps did not expect, may have thought of but not seriously, those who are water, real estate sales data to be processed , is to wish to influence market expectations, the market mentality to get out of trouble lying foreign capital to provide a basis and a tool for profit.
In fact, all along, some Chinese people believe in and willing to spread the light of reports of foreign capital, or the conclusions of its report, or experts. For these, we are aware of foreign capital. foreign capital also know, from the Bureau of Statistics released real estate sales data, has a booming real estate market, it just gives them provide a false public opinion, creating the basis for market sentiment. Thus, these foreign gentlemen, time to seize the opportunity to push the market expected, both for the benefit of the purpose to create a market atmosphere, but also curry favor with the government, Bode government happy. but the other , the Bureau of Statistics released foreign know real estate sales data may be water, know the actual market situation is not as optimistic as statistical data, but also know that China has not fully adjusted to the real estate cycle, know what they are lying, so, when the market sentiment be affected, is expected to be pushed up prices, the opportunity to sell quickly, but quietly selling commercial purposes so as not to affect its implementation.
domestic investors are also using data fabricating public opinion in order to get out of trouble
fact, In addition to foreign investment, domestic some investors, investment institutions, research institutions, developers, etc., also have adopted report, the media and other channels of public opinion, warm city, and its Bureau of Statistics released was mainly based on the data.
lying who, after holding a substantial investment in many quilt, waiting for some sort of relief, or to high Paohuo investors. they and foreign investment, hope based on data and data-based public opinion to change market expectations, pushing up house prices, to find were then set to achieve some sort of relief purposes.
this year, the actual situation in China real estate market, many people do not understand. Government to prop up the market, developers in order to create a hot atmosphere to stimulate consumers to buy, so have use of data, and even man-made processing data to establish the basis for the warm city, the foundation of public opinion.
for now, due to rising inflation expectations, the government has been ineffective against inflation, so real estate may again vigorous push by the direction of inflation expectations, it is possible resurgence bubble. future housing prices, is likely to exceed the real market demand and rising again staged authenticity. It should be said that in January-May, the Housing The actual situation of the property may not be as optimistic as statistics show, there is no public opinion as some of the situation is excellent.
1-5 �� housing statistics are not as optimistic
National Bureau of Statistics data show 1-May, the national real estate sales area of 246.44 million square meters, an increase of 25.5%. real estate sales 1.1389 trillion yuan, an increase of 45.3%.
In fact, it is true, the recent past, rising inflation, indeed to a certain extent changed the real estate is expected to push up house prices expected to stimulate some of the real estate sales. If the government does not take timely measures to combat inflation, if the central bank to raise interest rates do not take timely measures, then, do not rule out further price stage may continue to rise again possible. It should be said that in June before the real estate market data is actually not so hot, and not as optimistic statistics. The author analyzes Chen sincerely believe that there are six reasons Points:
First, the macroeconomic situation is still not optimistic, it is difficult to support China's thriving real estate market.
Second, real estate is still not out of the adjustment cycle, only the government encouraged ordinary owner-occupied housing policy of buying, it is difficult to become Real estate suddenly hot within 1-5 months.
Third, in addition to 5 months after the opening sale of real estate outside the new 1-May sales of real estate, most of the backlog had to be sold immediately available to sell real estate, if real estate market really as hot as statistics show, even more than in 2007, and that most of the real estate after six months of strong sales of around long after the winding-up should be sold out, but in fact not the case.
Fourth, the statistics show market hot, and a lot of credit, local government actions and other factors, in May again in some areas since the frequency is Business Qi grand land grab. Apart from a few large developers and harbor purposes must benefit the country's state-owned capital of the developers, the majority of developers are under a bailout, the data pick up the pain. because they know we the actual situation of the property market, may in the real estate situation is not as optimistic statistics show the time, land prices soaring again, after rising land prices have to worry about housing prices can carry such a high land costs, have to worry about housing City to City and the possible consequences of the difference, so most developers do not feel easy to get to, so most of the urban land market is still sluggish.
Fifth, most of the city's real estate market is actually not very hot, and some cities even have a price and quantity of Qi, or the decrease in the lower, and even into June in Guangzhou after turnover actually declined by more than 10%.
Sixth, the same statistical data between different data in their own there may be inconsistencies. Although the latest amendments, since January 1, 2010 shall come into force of the statistics point of view, the relevant government departments in the event of statistical data and statistical agencies of the statistical data inconsistencies, when the National Bureau of Statistics data released prevail, but the problem is the data released by National Bureau of inherent vulnerability. National Bureau of Statistics data show that 1-May, the national real estate sales 1.1389 trillion yuan, real estate development companies this year, sources of funds 1.7523 trillion yuan in individual mortgage loans to 198.3 billion yuan, which itself is contradictory between the two data. According to the data, 1-May, real estate development enterprises through the sale of real estate and obtain mortgage loans, sources of funds into the personal business mortgage loan is 198.3 billion yuan. mortgage loan data by the conversion, you will find that the amount of conversion from real estate sales, far from statistical data published by 1.1389 trillion yuan so much.
the Government should respond positively to eliminate doubts < br> This year, especially in the January-May, the realization of the real estate sales, its sales target mainly to purchase ordinary housing, improve the housing of the home-based customers. in residential real estate sales, mainly down 20 % of sales, up to 30% or more of the sales is not too much. now there is violence in many areas out of two sets of mortgage policies without the phenomenon of relaxation, two suites and even 20% down payment can be. There are some real estate there is an objective into a down payment, directly or in disguise such a low down payment and then take into account the situation hh other cases, through reasonable technical processing, taking the average significance, with 198.3 billion yuan by dividing the mortgage loan data of 0.7 (ie, 1-30%), rather than divided by 0.8 (ie 1-20%) can basically be obtained from January to May the national real estate market, sales of real estate mortgage loans by the relative accuracy of the data 1-May, the national real estate sales through the actual mortgage amount could be around 2832.857143 billion (198.3 billion yuan divided by 0.7).
2832.857143 billion this data, and the National Bureau of Statistics from January to May the national real estate sales 1.1389 trillion yuan a big difference! even 2832.857143 billion basis, plus National Bureau of Statistics data show that real estate deposits and advances received 415.8 billion yuan, the total number of only about 6990.857143 billion, compared with 1.1389 trillion yuan, still the difference between the amount of days.
this , despite the resulting statistics may be distorted for many reasons, although the National Bureau of Statistics of the method is scientific, but the objective difference between the amount of days of data, can not help but question the statistics from January to May the authenticity of real estate, Real estate can not be excluded the possibility of statistical data to be water.
However, when public opinion appears on this question when the Bureau not only failed to make timely and reasonable explanation or guidance to the public, objective view of the market, based on the use of statistical data but according to media reports said a large number of like so-called article, there are loopholes to make the article itself, Ray unconvincing response. Are they really do not know how the real estate market in the end the truth? Do they not know a lot of the public has been there for a reasonable doubt the authenticity of the data ? Do they not know the real estate data if the water could contribute to the real estate bubble? Do not they know that some foreign and domestic investors are likely to be water by the real estate data in a conspiracy to make money?
should be said, Despite the complexity of data because there is water, although the data may not be water caused by the subjective views of the State Statistical Bureau, but the government does have to reflect on some issues, for some time to improve the work.
the statistical methods limitations, due to the limited nature of the survey objects in the world, any statistical agency can not rule out the possibility of data distortion. In many countries, the government may be less than this or that there are likely to face varying degrees of statistical data distortion may be, and the public need to seek truth from facts, need to be honest, reliable data or government action. Therefore, this article of faith of Chen that, when the public questioned the authenticity of statistical data, the Government should be positive towards the possible problems positive response to the question of public statistics, and would take measures to address public questions on statistics, rather than trying to blindly maintain authority. even a variety of reasons can not solve the statistical data in a short time may lose the real problem However, the Government should tell the public the truth honestly, to remind the public an objective view, the use of data, to prevent being misled by public opinion, especially those based on individual or local business interests and the use of public opinion created by defective data. Otherwise, the data can easily be based on The use of commercial purposes, will the real estate market building and even negative economic construction.
In fact, it may be water for some reason the real estate sales data from January to May, public opinion may be in side side sing foreign short Paohuo exploited for commercial purposes, a foreign public opinion, and create a market environment, the basis of artificially high market expectations. such as Nomura's words and deeds, or a proof:
7 6, has been quietly in the Lehman Brothers, the original real estate assets in the country, after all the selling, public opinion had been singing for more space on the selling behavior of Nomura Securities, no longer continue to use the data sing, but sing a sudden had a change of speech, became the first sent a clear signal of China's real estate market bubble foreign institutions, its latest report said the real estate bubble is clearly apparent. Nomura Securities chief economist Sun Mingchun, published in the July 6 latest research report that China's astonishing bounce and suddenly the property market recovery is seen, the real estate bubble is emerging and is expected to burst the bubble will not be soon. As the concentration of demand for the release, expected real estate bubble will expand, and may be greater than the bubble in 2007.
market should not blindly follow foreign media
Chinese real estate market, the objective has obvious policy, asymmetric information, easily guiding public opinion, prone to panic and so on, it can even be said that the objective of China's soft real estate rib.
questioned by many to have had to rely on real estate statistics, if it is injected into water, if you can not objectively reflect the real situation of the real estate market, then, not only objectively, could encourage foreign and domestic investment in by real estate investment, speculation, and may be misleading to the market, to developers, consumers judge, making misleading. This analysis of Chen sincerely believe that the real estate market building itself, or more harm than good. < br> In particular, if foreign investors such as use of the Chinese real estate features may be distorted by knowing the statistics, for different business lines and other purposes, through the agency reports, expert opinion and other ways to lie, to create a real estate man market, public opinion, changing the real estate is expected, and even a direct impact on the price trend, it would be difficult to say will not affect the interests of the entire industry, it is difficult to say will not affect the national interest.
, therefore, market the side, to objectively look at statistics to determine a rational decision based on the data to do, not just listen to some research reports and other public institutions should not pander to foreign public opinion, whether the agency released a research report, or views of its expert's prediction.
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