Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Geometry of lower interest rates on the stock market

 The biggest news yesterday than the seven major central banks cut interest rates together. ,bailey UGG boots
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and the United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden have announced the central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points. The domestic front , the central bank decided: from October 9, the lower one-year RMB benchmark deposit and lending rates by 0.27 percentage point each; from October 15 onwards, down the RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. In addition, the State Council decided on October 9 the date of the savings deposit interest income temporarily exempt from personal income tax.
the central bank would like to take relevant measures in the past, generally have to wait for the introduction of the previous month's economic data only after it has almost become the norm. And now, September economic data has not been announced, the central bank to decisive shot, which seems somewhat unusual.
no doubt that the world's seven major central banks together, there are deeper reasons. sub-debt crisis intensified, which have allowed Europe and the United States bear shirk. the subprime mortgage crisis has also affected without exception, the domestic economy. coupled with the earlier tightening of monetary policy, many SMEs are affected. Moreover, the overall impact of the global economy, China faces from the risk of inflation into deflation. At this point the central bank's emergency shot, bailout measures, but with no follow-up measure is introduced, in April to rescue the stock market decline has long been the annihilation. and,UGG bailey button, in the suppression of many factors, the main stock index was lowered into the 1802 low point in recent years.
the impact of monetary policy for the stock market, in almost all previous stock market have been reflected. the central bank cut interest rates, in the end affect the geometry of the stock market? industry wise eyes of the beholder also see wisdom and so forth. However, if only from a point point of view the problem, I think that the there will be good follow-up to the introduction, is there some doubt. After all, this year in April to rescue the market, the index is also low constantly,Discount UGG boots, even though the market has been calling for regulators to come forward to rescue the market, but only until mid-September hearing.
In fact, if not sub-debt crisis intensified, if not index fell below 2000 points and 1800 points are also facing can not be maintained, perhaps A shares effect gradually spread to the real economy, when the stock market-related function is seriously distorted, the regulators, that is logical and timely shot thing.
following three good, the relaxation behavior of large holdings of shareholders, start Margin voucher pilot, should be regarded as regulators continue rescue efforts. on the market view that is relaxed, even if the holdings of major shareholders in the period, but its effect on the market is limited, because it will not most of the holdings of listed companies . But do not forget, the holdings of the central enterprises have tremendous power. The first is that the holdings of the central enterprises intent on behalf of the regulators, followed by the market of central enterprises are basically stability, conducive to the stability index, but also conducive to market stability. In addition, the pilot launch margin trading, more neutral view that this is a policy, does not matter positives and negatives. but even so, through the regulators in After the introduction of foreign market crash of measures, highlighted the determination and confidence to rescue the market, I think that this is the most important. Therefore, if viewed in isolation regulators of the bailout measures will separate each off is clearly biased.
Similarly, lower interest rates, the current impact of domestic economic fundamentals, various points of view almost diametrically opposed. reflected in the stock market is mixed praise or blame. that there is a good person it, a lot of people interpreted as bad Zheyi. How rational view of the effect of lower interest rates, I think that need to analyze the dialectical.
lower interest rates, at least show that the macro-control wind direction changed, as in the previous September 15 asymmetry of the lower central bank has two rates. Moreover, the industry is widely expected, the domestic interest rate cut cycle may be entered. This is the domestic enterprises, especially listed companies, no doubt, is a big plus, but also help boost business confidence.
more important, three good, relaxed holdings of major shareholders,UGG shoes, the pilot launch margin trading, coupled with the reduction in interest rates, which filed out of good will increasingly reflect the cumulative effect of it. central bank reduced interest rates in order to ensure economic growth, behind, in fact, also in maintaining market stability. Therefore, the role of the central bank to lower interest rates can not be understood in isolation, one-sided. at least for the stock market in terms of its impact is positive.

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