They will feel back to the lake, oblivious to the danger. Then, under the heavy lid cover, and fired. At this time, you can hear them scratching sound of the pot wall, began to light, and then struggling, and then light, then died down after the. A few minutes later, you open the lid, has become a golden crab. At this time, you can with vinegar ginger, enjoy delicious.
now, China's real estate people are like crabs in a pot of cold water. They feel good, it will stretch my legs from time to time. Do not see any danger. As everyone knows, they have been covered with lid, the following points on the fire. Soon to be cooked, but not yet discovered.
April of this year, I told readers of the property market bubble about to burst, it will inform you. Now, the property market has peaked. Time in the rest of the year, it will gradually decline. By 2012, the RMB appreciation is expected to be reversed, capital will flow, when the property market will accelerate the decline.
China has entered the real estate bear market will last five years. Large cities, the average price is likely to fall more than half. Land prices will drop more. The largest and most crazy bubble Zhejiang Province, prices could fall 80% or even more.
wages and rents
Why house prices will fall so much? when the bubble deflated, when wages and prices must fall to the level of investment income can support. In China's real estate market, now rental rate of return less than 3%, it must return more than 5%, while the unit price per square meter should not exceed two months, the average wage.
the bubble period, the accuracy of assertions is an art market at the top. Follow the trend of investment in human weakness foam booster, the total time to wake up to the last. Low tide is usually the bubble burst triggered by capital. Sometimes, excess supply will be more than speculative demand, enough to scare off speculators. Most of the bubble is suddenly broken. But there is a gradual leakage of individual bubbles.
1997, the withdrawal of foreign funds pushing up interest rates, leading Hong Kong property market bubble burst, instantly, absorption of all funds of this casino. The Internet bubble burst in 2000, because those shareholders of listed companies limit sales of shares in the hands of large-scale sell-off just after that, woke up speculators. The U.S. housing bubble burst in 2007, because the sub-prime due, that is not on the speculators money.
gradually discouraged
discourage real estate bubble can last for many years. 90 20th century, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average crash, the Japanese property bubble has inflated for two years. And it is not vanished in a moment, but in the subsequent two decades, to about 8% per year decline. Taiwan under Japanese influence,Bailey UGG boots, house prices are also slow down, until the recovery of China's frenzied real estate market speculators.
1998, China's real estate bubble has burst. Three years, the Shanghai housing prices fell by two thirds. Guangdong and Hainan residential flats everywhere. More recently speaking, housing prices in Shanghai from May 2005 to the end of 2006 fell by one third. Many commercial real estate and even dropped by half.
the bubble began in 2007 and now, by the loose monetary policy and the appreciation of the renminbi expected birth, I thought, it also shattered in an instant. However, recent developments changed my point of view. The bursting of the bubble may not be instantaneous, but will gradually be discouraged. Before, I thought the Government may relax the macro-control in the fourth quarter, leading to skyrocketing housing prices once the bubble in the second half of 2011 or 2012, a sudden burst.
that the government still did not relax lending restrictions or three suites. That most potential home buyers by the control, in fact,Discount UGG boots, these home buyers do not have enough cash, and mainly rely on loans to buy a house, therefore, not a higher level of house prices.
addition to the credit policy, liquidity is also tightened. RMB exchange rate is like a After years of waiting, do not see the Although the United States once again speak out Geithner yuan is undervalued, but the market which has been numb. RMB NDF market does not expect significant appreciation of the RMB in the next year.
this hot money flowing into China a great impact. Deposits become increasingly competitive industry. Financial products provided by banks is very much like deposits, but interest rates than the central bank offered higher interest provisions.
recession?
Now China's real estate prices are slowly falling and the pace will accelerate in 2012, when China's economy will be frustrated. The next decade, exports, consumption and infrastructure will be 7% -8% growth rate. Compared with recent years, this growth is relatively slow, but it is more beneficial to improve wages and family living standards and corporate profits.
Chinese people can not use home equity loans to spend. More than 2000 million heads of households were vacant rooms will be getting poorer, or bankruptcy. Sales of luxury cars may also be reduced. But the middle class with more purchasing power because they buy from the speculators, where the cost will be reduced.
real estate bubble deflated in order to prevent an impact on other investments, the Government must quickly to recapitalize banks. Government has sufficient financial resources and intellectual to do so. In the past decade, China has a strong property market and weak consumption. The next decade, the situation may be just the opposite.
before the property market control measures are known as Seeing the market regulation will also become
Shanghai Municipal Government on August 7th batch of the Shanghai Municipal Housing Authority, housing support five departments copy number of qualified buyers within the household, the tentative Shanghai and other provinces and Shanghai residents can only purchase a set of new commodity housing (including second-hand stock of housing),UGG boots, property tax reform and actively making all the preparations, according to the different housing selling price of land value increment tax 预征 rate.
Some experts think that control rules from the Shanghai property market can be seen, the market regulation is not something new, the basic policy measures along the learning of the original tone, that only the original Specifications and additional policies and measures to repair the original parts closely enough, emphasizing the rigidity of the implementation of control policies. These control measures, for the developer behavior, have a role in inhibition of speculation, but the prices return to the rational function is indirect. In the long term, the situation is still not optimistic, as long as housing prices continue to rise at a high level, speculation still difficult to suppress, to achieve the healthy development of China's property market long way to go.
can see, this is not the first loud noise to fall boots, but is the result of the repair coating. Therefore, the public's attention focused on the other one could fall boots - property taxes.
eve of National Day, the relevant state ministries and once again made it clear that the state will speed up property tax reform,bailey UGG boots, and gradually expand to the country. E-House Real Estate Institute of Integrated Research Department Bo Yang Hongxu revealed even in the micro, Shanghai, Shenzhen, real estate tax has been approved, the tax rate is 0.3% -0.4%. Although Yang Hongxu said later, real estate tax rate is only speculation, This is industry speculation earlier property tax rate of 0.3% -0.4% consistent. If so calculated that, should the house purchase price was 220 million, 0.4% of the property tax rate would mean a year need to pay 8,800 yuan. (PRC)
the news that Shanghai has entered the Also said in Shanghai, is actively promoting the introduction of property tax related work.
real estate tax tax, object, property tax rates low, property tax base is fixed or floating point, and has become a hot topic in public.
been said, the levy of property taxes may be unrelated to the housing market, the Chinese economy is facing a crisis phase of the reflection is initiatives. It is said that property taxes for the rich, it may drop in the bucket, but there is room for the poor to be fatal. Some people say that when the Government to abolish property taxes, the introduction of various
some experts, the developers are relatively much more realistic point of view, they think the problem is not China real estate property tax is the last straw. Pan Shiyi, chairman of SOHO China, believes that once the property tax and property tax levy, impact on the market will be very large. However, deputy director of the Institute of Fiscal Science, the tax experts and other authoritative Liu Shangxi property taxes if it leads to lower prices skeptical, The role is fuel.
how effective is the regulation of the property market, so far without any reason for optimism. From the history of the Chinese property market, housing prices continued regulation is irrational continuously soaring. From the current perspective, the New Deal during the National Day after the launch of the Shenzhen property hot property market anomalies, appears to expose the historical scars, each time falling market regulation boots, without exception, hit in the head of innocent people, and past interest control group is always time and time again to get more benefits.
Why do this? There is no doubt the problem lies in regulation purposes.
year, Du law clearly want to invent Now, the property control of the This is also in the Chinese model, worthy of letters of the chapter.
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